Modern British Declinism (Part 1)

Since World War II, the UK has seen the subsequent decline of their global power status, especially through the lost of their colonies which once made up 25% of the world's landmass. However, over the last 15 years, British Declinism has accelerated greatly thanks largely in part to economic decline, political divisions and internal conflicts resulting in economic deceleration and stalled growth. In this four part series, I will ‘attempt’ to explain how the UK got into this position and what it means for the world. 

 To provide further clarification, I separate British Declinism into two parts. First is Colonial Declinism which occured from the end of WW2 in 1945 to the Handover of Hong Kong 1997 (a series for another time perhaps?). The other is Modern Declinism (MBD) which traces its origins to the 2008 Great Recession. One metric I will be referencing a lot in this article is that of G7 countries, especially that of France and Germany because of their relative population and location.

Chapter 1: Pre-Declinism and New Labour (2000s)

Let's first set the scene. Between 1997-2006, Under the leadership of Prime Minister Tony Blair and Chancellor (aka Finance Minister) Gordon Brown, Britian was thriving. The country is saw next level economic growth and low debt with a reformed tax system and high market competitiveness. When Blair resigned and Gordon Brown became PM in June 2007, everyone anticipated further economic growth which Brown did deliver but not for long...

Chapter 2: Great Recession (2008-2010)

The start of MBD, in my opinion, is Britian's poor response to the Great Recession. To summarise for my economic-illeterate friends out there. Britian's revenue at the time was reliant on financial services like Banks. So when banks crashed in the recession, the UK's economy went down with it. In just six months, the London Stock Exchange lost 80% of its value (worst of G7 countries). While the UK was not the hardest hit in the recession (among G7 countries), they did stay in recession the longest (1.5yrs) and was also the last G7 country to exit (Sep 2009). After the recession, PM Brown's popularity slashed and the next year, was swept out of office in the General Election.

Chapter 3: Recovery & Divisons (2010-2014)

It is here where I must introduce the younger kids here to a term called 'Austerity' which basically means to cut spending and increase taxes to stabilise the Government's budget deficit (aka finances). Austerity is often used as a way for an economy to recover after economic downturn if done right. (this part is very important for later).

After the 2010 election, David Cameron and the Conservative Party (CONV) came to power via a coalition government. He famously said "The Age of Austerity Begins". For the next four years, Cameron decimated funding to 'unimportant' things like Media, Arts, Nature etc and skyrocketed taxes to help stabilise the Government's deficit. The problem with Austerity is that while it does stabilise your Govt, it doesn't really help your people. In 4 years, homelessness and poverty doubled, mental health and mortality rates increased and food banks became nonexistent overnight. So while Austerity does save your economy, it doesn't really help your people whom are ironically worse off than they were during the recession. This eventually led to people basically turning on the Prime Minister, starting with Scotland

The region that undoubtedly thrived the most under Labour was Scotland. But with Labour out of power and a CONV government making people worse off, Scotland's national movement (aka Independent Scotland nation) began gaining ground. In 2014, PM Cameron gave in and held a referendum for Scottish independence which failed by a few thousand votes. Instead, Cameron gave Scotland devolution (more freedom) but at the end of the day, Devolution ain't the same as Independence full stop [1].

In the 2015 General Election, many expected Cameron to be wiped off of Government. Ironically, he won even more seats and need not form a coalition anymore, basically increasing his power. With CONV now stronger than ever, Cameron set his sights on further political ambition. In 2016, he called for the UK to leave the European Union, resulting in Brexit...

Happy Reading!

Part 1 saw the start of British Declinism with the Great Recession, Austerity and Political Divisions.

Part 2 will delve into Brexit, the 'end' of Austerity and COVID-19

Part 3 will elucidate the 'return' to Austerity, Ukraine War and the fall of Boris Johnson

Part 4 will discuss the rapid downfall of Liz Truss, the weak Rishi Sunak and the future of Britian