The Novel Coronavirus: A Time to Reflect

The Novel Coronavirus: A Time to Reflect

     In 1918, a horror story struck the world. The story is now widespread but yet it's mysterious. So mysterious that till this day in our modern world, we still don't know where this began. It is indeed the Spanish Flu or The Influenza Pandemic. It killed roughly 50-100 million people or then almost 4% of the world's population. No one was safe. But yet spoiler alert, we got through that. Now, we are at another turning point. COVID-19, while less deadly than the Spanish Flu has still killed millions and infected hundreds of millions. This article, I want to answer the How, the Why, the Who and the Future of our planet. Now, more than one year on since the Pandemic broke out, it's time to reflect on COVID and Pandemics as a whole.

     Before beginning, I'd like to mention a book that inspired this article called 'Guns, Germs and Steel' by a chap named Jared Diamond, an American geologist. The book talks about the divide between nations and civilisation along with a good mix of world history and historical advancements in technology. I highly recommend this book to everyone especially if they are into the history of certain parts of the world like Africa or Micronesia. Anyways, let's get on with the reflection.

The Last Pandemic: The Spanish Flu

     The Spanish Flu has been pretty forgotten ever since it subsided. Until this Pandemic when people compared the two Pandemics. So the question on the table is what's the difference between that and this and could it have saved us? 

     Till this day, people still argue about a lot of information. Fair enough, that was 1918 technology when a computer was the size of a house, I guess. One of the arguments is the origin of Spanish Flu. Spoiler alert, it didn't come from Spain, it only got Spanish Flu because Spain first publicise the flu in the media while other nations were trying to hide the fact it was spreading. Some say Nigeria, others say Canada, but it most likely came from the United States. It spread and killed EVERYWHERE. In modern estimates, it killed around 50-100 million or back in the day was around 4% of the world's population. So how did we bungle that? The answer was more of being dismissive or being ignorant which I will call 'Disnorant'. notice the similarity? Both Spanish Flu and COVID-19 were also based on both of these reasons! Let's present the case for how we bungled the two Pandemics, 100 years apart.

Presenting the Case: The Spanish Flu

     For the Spanish Flu, it's easy to understand. Cases exploded because of two particular reasons. The WAR, The EMPIRE and The PARADE. Let's begin with the bigger reason for being Disnorant. 

The War: The main reason for cases exploding in the first place was the First World War. The Spanish Flu was first mainly detected as Influenza in Military Camps back in the United States before the USA declared war on Germany. When the US did declare war on Germany, ships slowly made their way carrying American soldiers, some already carrying the flu, to help the warfront in France which caused the virus to spread eastward to Europe. It was chaos from there. Military Hospitals were overcrowded with patients so much so patients were layed on groundsheets which were layed out in the grass. The virus first weakened the allies, especially the British and French. But afterwards, it slowly advanced into the Central Powers. In the later months of the war, Germany went on an offensive which failed horrendously thanks proportionally to the flu. Millions of soldiers died to this flu especially in trench warfare.

     The Allies were advancing better than ever and were close to Berlin. The flu though was slowing their advancement and doctors warned that troops sent to help the war effort would cause a further outbreak of the flu. But the one man who could stop the spread refused to listen to doctors on the flu and instead continue the war effort by sending more troops. It was the "Last burst of fire" as they called it. That man was none other than President Woodrow Wilson. He ordered men to continue fighting and sent in even more troops. Causing more cases of Spanish Flu to erupt in huge numbers.

The Empire: Another way the World suffered through Spanish Flu greatly was colonialism. For example, India had an approximate 15 million deaths from Spanish Flu, the cause? The British were fighting a world war and couldn't be bothered with the idea of a flu infecting it's colony so left it to 'suffer' by itself. Also small fact: Mahatma Gandhi actually got the Spanish Flu and almost died from the flu. Other colonies that suffered greatly such as South Africa or New Zealand. 

The Parade: September 28, 1918. Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, United States. The Philadelphia Liberty Loan Parade. Thousands were crowding on the streets waving American flags and getting into the spirit. A few weeks before that, the Mayor of Philadelphia had been warned that if the parade went on, it would result in a tremendous loss of life to the flu which had already killed hundreds in the city, the cancellation was refused. What followed were a significant uptick in cases and deaths. Philadelphia became the new epicenter of Spanish Flu. Hospitals crammed with patients all suffering from flu. After the flu, an estimated 16,000 people died of Spanish Flu in Philadelphia itself

     Which brings us to the story of John Martin Poyer, then Governor of American Samoa. When he heard about the outbreak of Spanish Flu in New Zealand and neighboring territories he sent a message to the Port of Pago Pago. The famous "Close The Port" message. He then asked for all ships arriving into Samoa to be quarantined. Samoa became the last safe heaven of the world, the last place on Earth not to be infected by Spanish Flu.

     So how did Spanish Flu end? The answer was a type of vaccine. It was created by a few individuals from various parts of the United States. The flu eventually ended after around 2-3 years but it left a footprint on our planet. But why do we not remember the Spanish Flu as a turning point? The Spanish Flu has been often referred to as 'The Forgotten Plague'. There have been many reasons why but the biggest reason is probably because the war mainly spread the virus further. 

     Thanks to technological capabilities and advancements, we now have data for the Spanish Flu tracking where it spread, how it spread, how many it infected and killed etcetera. But very recently in 1998, scientists dug up an animal infected with Spanish Flu and found its real identity. Spanish Flu was the infamous disease that was H1N1. The virus was relatively young at that time therefore it killed mainly young people. While H1N1 strikes again in 2009, it was not as deadly but instead an epidemic. Let's now take a look at other famous Epidemics in the past years.

Presenting the Case: COVID-19

     COVID-19 is a hard virus to decode. There are countless of reasons why we messed up. Today, I'm going to talk about a few only. Trust me, we have a lot to get through

1. Globalisation - In 1991, the Soviet Union collapsed paving the way for The United States. The US became the world's only superpower and began a process of globalisation. Technically, American globalisation began in the late 1940s during the Post-WWII Era. First came the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) then Japan and South Korea. The formed a 'border' between Communist Russia and China. The US globalisation plan was based solely off of its promise. "Attack one of us allies and we will attack you back". This promise has been carved into America since 1949 (Founding of NATO) until very recently in the 2010s. Japan and South Korea slowly began leaning towards China after its economic success in the 1990s while the USSR collapse in 1991 opened its borders to Europe as well. The United States slowly faded out of its 'Sole Superpower Status' and still is.

     When COVID-19 hit, everyone thought America was going to get through the virus fast and help other struggling nations. Instead, it didn't. Not only was it on its knees, other countries such as Japan and Sweden have done significantly better than the US. What could have been a great moment to help strengthen its ties with allies, was instead an internal failure. 

2. Complacency - Let's be real here. It was mainly complacency that brought us to where we are. We downplayed the severity of the virus. I can't say that about every nation since countries like New Zealand or South Korea or Taiwan (not technically a nation) and even China all did very well in their response to COVID. This word 'Complacency' has been on my mind for a long time. Take my favourite example of Complacency. The United States. In the first 4 months, Trump had been downplaying the virus and talked a lot of trash on it but in the end, the virus got the last laugh. Trump was responsible for the uptick in cases and as a result, lost the 2020 election. To me, I think nations especially European ones were complacent from January to July, after lockdowns did nations become more focused on COVID-19. 

3. The System Itself - In 1948, the World Health Organisation (WHO) was founded to specialise in International Public Health. Do you see the problem? The WHO does not specialise in a system, it specialises in an emergency. But the problem is that an emergency response requires an adequate system. That means that in poorer countries, there is no functional healthcare system in place. This is one of the big mistakes we made. After Spanish Flu, countries were still not prioritizing in an adequate healthcare system for all. Here is my solution to this problem. Get the WHO to create a playbook for countries. Countries can have its own system but can use the WHO system if they want to. The playbook should include everything from the bottom such as data, mapping, contact tracing to the top like media coverage on virus and affordable vaccinations and finance. 

4. Connectivity - In 2019, the world has been as connected as ever. With planes, cars, ships, drones. And true enough, if it weren't for COVID-19, our progress in connectivity would have continued to increase significantly. Connectivity definitely caused our downfall. And the aviation crisis right now has already lost billions with still no end in sight. When a virus hits wherever, all transportation activity to said place should be reduced by at least 96% at all cause. The other 4% should only be for very very compulsory travels such as healthcare workers and last-minute business travels. Other activities such as tourism should end immediately. 

Farren's Opinion Corner - Copied from my notes written in September 2020

     So did we in a way screw up? Did we improve our virus response in any way? My answer to that is Yes. In my view, there is no doubt we did screw up. But did we improve? Yes but not a strong confident Yes. We only improved mostly from advanced technological capabilities. In 1918, computers were probably the size of a house, I think while now, it fits in a pocket! It took 4 days to travel across the Atlantic back in 1918. Today, it takes less than 5 hours. We have moved on from 1918. We have done better. Way way better. But not to our best potential. We could have avoided the entire thing if we did better. We could have lockdown Wuhan (epicenter of COVID-19) earlier and the impact would haven been extraordinary. If we ever have another Pandemic, let's hope we can do better. Actually, we CAN and WILL do BETTER. Better than Spanish Flu (1918), than COVID-19 (2020), than Cholera (1820), than Bubonic Plague (1350), than Tuberculosis, Smallpox, Mengitis, Malaria, Influenza, Typhus, Measles and anything else. For we can avoid a Pandemic in any cause.

Happy Reading!

Other Information (You Should Know)

1) As of 28 February, the Novel Coronavirus has infected 114.438 Million people and killed 2.538 Million people in total according to Worldometer

2) The Spanish Flu or The Influenza Pandemic is a type of H1N1 strain that was very infectious.

3) By the time the Spanish Flu arrived on European Soil, the Central and Allied Powers were in trench warfare. The United States entered the war to help break the trench warfare.

4) Pago Pago is the official capitol of American Samoa. 

5) Trump didn't just lose becuase of the Pandemic but other scandals as well. He lost to Joe Biden by 7 million votes.

6) That Bill Gates TED talk I mentioned can be found here -> https://youtu.be/6Af6b_wyiwI

7) Guns, Germs and Steel is a book by Jared Diamond first published in 1997. I read the original version.

8) Please comment below if you have any further questions on this article. Thanks!