The 2022 Midterms and the Trump Disaster

On November 7, Americans went to the polls to vote for their Senator, Governor and Representatives. This is known as the Midterm Elections and it occurs 2 years after a Presidential Election. Let's first set the record straight, it is not uncommon for the President's party to get voted out of power from the House and Senate (collectively known as Congress) during the midterms. It happened with Trump in 2018, Obama in 2010 and Clinton in 1994 [1]. So Midterms is more of how badly the President's party lose not if they lose or not. 

In the weeks leading up to the election, many analysts were predicting a 'Red Wave'. In other words, they were predicting Biden and Democrats were about to lose congress by significant margins. For example, 538, a credible polling website predicted there was a 60% chance that the GOP would win the Senate and a whopping 86% that the GOP would win the house. 

Chapter 1 - The Trump Disaster
The result was an utter disaster for the Republicans. As of November 15, the Dems have maintained control of the Senate while the Republicans have taken over and won the House, by just 3 seats. The result is plain and simple, the 'Red Wave' was a myth and never happened. For the first time, the polls and analysts overestimated the GOP's lead. Many of the candidates that lost their seats were handpicked and endorsed by Trump himself. 

One such candidate was TV personality Mehmet Oz who ran for Senator of Pennsylvania. In the weeks leading up to the results, Oz was expected to win. In the end, he not only lost the election, but he lost by a larger majority than anyone expected. His opponent John Fetterman won 51.2% of the vote. 

Another candidate is TV personality Kari Lake who ran for Governor of Arizona. She was also predicted to win but as of November 15, Lake lost her seat by just 20,000 votes. Throughout her campaign, she has publicly commended and supported Trump and his election-stealing rhetoric. 

Chapter 2 - The Trump Rival
So within the Republican Party, who was the biggest winner? Many would argue its Ron DeSantis. In this midterm election, DeSantis ran for re-election as Governor of Florida and won by the biggest margin in Floridian History. He won 60% of the vote for Governor, putting him in a firm position to run against Trump as the GOP candidate for President. As if perfectly planned by Trump, mere minutes after the New York Times declared DeSantis as Governor, Trump prepared a full 2-page essay revealing 'undesirable' details about DeSantis including a detail about how DeSantis begged Trump for help with his previous election campaign (allegedly). 

DeSantis represents about 50% of the Republican Party. This 50% has not fallen into prey to Trump and his electoral bullshit, but has stuck to their principles as a moderate right-wing party. While 50% is a lot, this portion of the party is also quiet and less outspoken. In my opinion, DeSantis will find it hard to go against Trump for the candidacy. DeSantis must reunite his party, not under a person but under its principles. If he goes too far, he may split the party even further. If he goes too little, Trump will win the candidacy. 

Chapter 3 - The Triumph
Now let's talk about the Democrats. Biden's first speech after results rolled in was interesting. He talked a lot about his party, less about the country and democracy. Very different to the victory speech Biden said in 2020. So what's next? Biden says he is undecided on his plan to run for President in 2024 again. Dems are all for him running again, Analysts tell him his time is up by 2024. In my opinion, there is only 3 high-chance scenario for the 2024 election.

Biden v Trump - In my opinion, there is a 40% chance of this scenario. Trump will return to run against Biden in 2024 but (provided nothing bad happens to Biden in the next 2 years) will lose to Biden because his base and popularity among his own party is shrinking

Biden v DeSantis - I will give this a good 30% chance of happening. DeSantis has found himself in a strong and powerful position in his party and among the country. DeSantis' midterm win was his victory, not a Trump one. And if DeSantis positions himself as a man of his own representing Republican principals and not personality, he can have a good run and might even win against Biden.

Kamala Harris v DeSantis - This has a 25% chance of occuring in my opinion. VP Harris has not been the best Vice-president since coming into office. You don't really see her on the news and you don't really care about her. Her approvals is sat at 30%, which is lower than the last 3 VPs. So in the unlikely chance of this occuring, DeSantis will most likely crush the Dems. Also, you might wonder why not Harris v Trump? I think in the likely chance of Trump retruning, the Democrats will not make Harris their candidate, they wpuld probably want someone a bit more experienced, not someone rated 30%.

Other Candidates - There will probably not be any other scenario other than the three mentioned above so take this with a pinch of salt. We may see a Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren comeback from the Democrats. And from the Republicans we might see a return to 2016 with candidates such as Jeb Bush, Ben Carson etc. (If you don't know anyone I just mentioned, its ok, they are not getting anywhere near the Preisdency anyways) 

Conclusion
So what's next? Biden is now in a weaker postion because the Republicans hold the House which means his popularity will continue to slide, his policies will face even more backleash when being debated on, he will become a bit handicapped by the House control. Meanwhile, the GOP may do some soul searching, they may be going insane at party HQ, they may reconsider whether to let an American Radical Billionaire run for office again, they may even split apart. So I can't believe that I'm now in a position whereby this time in 2024, I could very well be reporting that Trump is America's next President, again. But if Biden bounces back to better bases, then a back-to-back, beyond-belief victory might be bagged by Biden again. 

Happy Reading! 

*It has been 226 days since Farren last posted on his Opinion Corner. He has been quite busy so give him a break. Next article will be out Mid- December.

*Also, Farren is really proud that the wrting of the article beat the BBC and NYT in reporting. Farren's faster at typing than journalists in New York

[1] - Bush was the only administration in the last 30 years to not lose congress during the Midterms in 2002, largely thanks to his handling of the 9/11 Disaster which boosted his popularity

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