Post-Erdôgan Turkey

On 14 May, over 60 million Turks voted in the Presidential Election. On the right is Incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdôgan since 2014, a grandmaster of Turkish politics for over 30 years. On the left is Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, Leader of the Opposition and a master negotiator through his 'Big-Tent' approach. This election is more than just a fight between two old nemesis, its a review of Erdôgan's last 5 years in office especially his many failures. Erdôgan's failures have already been criticized enough, little need for an amateur like me to diss him as well. So instead, I will talk about what happens after this election if Erdôgan wins or, msot likely, lose. 

Scenario 1 - Erdôgan Wins: Erdôgan's win will prove to be an upset to many Turks across the country, especially urban areas, ravaged by high inflation. On 15 May, the day after the first election when Erdôgan posted higher than expected results, the Turkish Lira dropped in value with the Istanbul Stock Index dropping 6%. 

Other than the reaction to Erdôgan's win, we don't really know how he will govern. Whether he will run the country like how he's done for the past decade or change course after a near-lost experience. What we do know is that on the same night of the Presidential Election, Türkiye also held its Parliamentary Election which Erdôgan's coalition quickly won. With power in Parliament, I'd put my bets that his rule on Türkiye will remain unchanged.

Scenario 2 - Kılıçdaroğlu Wins - Ironically, Kılıçdaroğlu's win will also be an upset for Turkish politics. After all, its no easy job winning an Incumbent for President, let alone one who has served for 10 years and being older (Erdôgan is 69, Kılıçdaroğlu is 74). So how will he rule Türkiye? I liked the way the Guardian summed it up 'Kılıçdaroğlu has promised a return to orthodox economic policies, and to spearhead a return to parliamentary democracy. He has also pledged to restore judicial independence, a move away from using the judiciary to crack down on dissent.' In other words, Kılıçdaroğlu seems to apply the 'Biden' approach to the election, treating it like a 'democracy is at stake' approach. 

But since Erdôgan's coalition has won a majority, getting things through Parliament will be slow and arduous under Kılıçdaroğlu and he may face some serious issues trying to solve the nation's problem. Worse, Erdôgan's not just going to disappear from politics overnight. Erdôgan will likely take on a 'Trump' approach to politics - Irrelevant but still Important at the same time.

What to Expect - So despite all this, what do I personally think will happen? Acting like a bookie here, I bet a 60% chance of an Erdôgan win and 40% chance of a Kılıçdaroğlu win. But any win will still be dangerously slim, so slim that the results may be fought over.

If Erdôgan wins, Türkiye will stay the same for 5 years. Kılıçdaroğlu is unlikely to run again in 2028 so he has little to worry about. If Kılıçdaroğlu wins, things get interesting. Türkiye will go through progressive change for the next 5 years with more focus towards domestic policies than foreign ones. 

I just want to bet a small (8%) chance of a possible 'election was stolen' riots triggered by Erdôgan himself. Erdôgan has a large voter base, of which more than half are incredibly loyal to him (like getting expensive seats at the blackpink concerts) so if Erdôgan merely implies a stolen election, his supporters go all out for him, maybe even storm the parliament in Ankara. (sounds familiar...)

Closing Thoughts - I really liked how the Wall Street Journal summarised this elwction in their video. "Over the last 20 years, Erdôgan has made himself into Türkiye's most powerful Leader in a century. And if he is brought down through democratic means, that could inspire hope for other countries to do the same". This election is not just about an old man debating an older man, this election has global consequences. Türkiye is a nation south of the atrocities in Ukraine, part of the world's wealthiest continent and the centre of global trade and the person chosen to lead it may change the World, perhaps in a more positive way...

Happy Reading!