Biden cannot WIN the Election

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Biden's re-election campaign tells us a lot about the interesting position that the President is in, his reasons and purpose in the upcoming years and more importantly, the awkward position his party is in. All these factors considered is why I do not believe that Biden will win the 2024 Presidential election, whoever his challenger may be.

Biden's Current Position - Every US President since 1968 has sought for a second term [1] and its clear why. The simple fact is that no President would choose not to run again if they felt that they were performing well in the job. But despite that, some re-election bids still end in failure. The most common reason for why an Incumbent's re-election campaign fails is due to the economy. Hoover lost to Roosevelt in 1932 after the Great Depression. Carter lost to Reagan in 1980 after the 1980 recession. And Trump lost to Biden in 2020 after COVID-19. 

The economic situation in the US for the last 4 years has not been great. Inflation at 10% (at its peak), a slow Stock Market growth of 7%, the stupid high price of oil has hindered the President's approvals. His greatest bragging point is the creation of jobs and low unemployment. But when it comes to the election, no one cares about low unemployment, people care about issues that affect them such as inflation. To summarise, Biden will have a hard time defending his economic decisions and failures in 2024 and I fear that that will cost him the Presidency

Biden's Purpose (Disadvantage) - One of the biggest things Biden will need to shrug off is his age. Biden will turn 81 next year making him one of the oldest World Leaders (Mahathir's pissed). The only way that the Republicans can use this to their advantage is to nominate a young and refreshing candidate to go against Biden. And while Trump is younger than Biden, the line of attack is more effective if the 44-year old DeSantis runs instead. 

Biden's Purpose (Advantage) - With age comes experience. Biden has been a politician since before DeSantis was born. While DeSantis has had 6 years as a Representative and 4 years as a Governor, Biden has had 36 years as a Senator and 8 years as Vice-President (and of course President). I hope Biden attacks DeSantis by bringing up his experience but he cannot overuse it which may make him sound like a sellout. 

The Democratic Party - Biden will almost certainly be the nominee for the Democratic Party but it will be one of the most interesting nominations ever. Firstly, Biden has not pleased his Party enough. His own party does not necessarily approve of him running but they will still vote for him because its better than Trump or DeSantis. Secondly, no one within the Party can challenge Biden. Despite low approvals within his Party, Biden need not fear much because no one can put up a fight against him. Bernie Sanders, the only real contender in the party to challenge Biden has said he fully supports Biden. Thirdly, and most importantly, Biden running is better than not running at all. Incumbent candidates almost always have the advantage in terms of media coverage, fame and awareness and of course, donations and finances. 

Overall, my current bets are that Biden will not win the 2024 Presidential Election and will lose to either Trump or DeSantis. But remember, Biden still has about 500 days to turn things around and I certainly believe he can do it. 

Happy Reading! 

[1] - Excluding Nixon's Resignation and Ford's two years in the job. I don't count those because Nixon ruined himself and Ford stood no chance







 

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