Explaining the Ukraine Crisis

 Explaining the Ukraine Crisis

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One of Ukraine’s most important geographic feature is the Dnipro River. It starts in Russia and flows south into the country of Belarus and then into Ukraine where it cuts Ukraine into two parts. This river is not only a unique river geographically, but also culturally. Looking at maps of the different languages spoken in different parts of Ukraine and you’ll see that residents living west of the river speak mainly Ukrainian while residents living east of the river speak mainly Russian.

Anyways, back to the river. The Dnipro continues the cut Ukraine into two before flushing into the Black Sea. The part of Ukraine facing the Black Sea is a Peninsula called Crimea. Home to roughly 2 million people, Crimea is technically a part of Ukraine and has been for more than 100 years but most of the people living in Crimea identifies and speak Russian. According to various sources on the Internet, around 65% of Crimean identify as Russian with another 70% of Crimean living in Sevastopol, the largest city in Crimea, identifying as Russian. From the data, there is clearly something wrong. Why is a Peninsula part of Ukraine when everyone don’t want to be part of Ukraine. This question escalated before it peaked in 2014, the Crimean Breaking Point.

Chapter 1 - The Crimean Breaking Point

The year was 2014. Ukraine had had it with its Former President Viktor Yanukovych. They demanded change in the Ukrainian Government and for him to leave office. So in February 2014, thousands of protesters demanded just that leaving 98 dead, thousands of injuries and damage to infrastructure. This event is today known as the Revolution of Dignity (2014). Yanukovych eventually decided to compromise and signed a deal to do what protestors protested for while still keeping in power. Only for Yanukovych to be kicked out of office by Parliament on 25 February 2014, bringing an end to the Revolution.
But while Ukraine was weakened, Russia was power-hungry. It saw the sudden revolution in Ukraine as an opportunity to take Crimea back into Russian hands. So Vladimir Putin personally directed Russian forces to annex Crimea. On 23 February, Russian troops just walked into Ukraine with little to no defence. Meanwhile, Crimea is absolutely loving this. They now have the chance to reunite with the Russian Mainland. So they take this opportunity and hold a referendum on whether they should join Russia. Unsurprisingly, 97% of Crimean said ‘yes’.

Within a month, Russian troops march into Crimea and just took it over. On 16 March, Putin and Crimean leaders signed a treaty stating that Russia won and we are happy to join them. At this point, the United Nations steps in and basically says, “Not so fast. Let’s talk”. To simplify, the UN basically said that the referendum results is not a recognised referendum and therefore do not recognise that Russia owns Crimea. Till this day, Crimea is disputed territory. 

Chapter 2 - The NATO Debate

But it begs to ask the simple question, what exactly does Putin and Russia want out of Ukraine? Why is he so obsessed with this country? Well, there are a few reasons. The biggest of which is the expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). To simplify, NATO was formed in 1949 to help European countries in military and economic support against the Soviet Union. But it was really a promise by the United States, “Attack any European nation and we will all attack you back.” It was an important alliance to join over the fear of communism spreading over the world. After the fall of the USSR, the question on NATO’s existence has surfaced every few years. But more interestingly, NATO has been admitting Former Soviet Nations. So far, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have been admitted into NATO. And ever since then, Ukraine has been floating the idea of joining as well.

Chapter 3 - Farren’s Opinion Corner

So here’s my opinion on the current conflict in Ukraine. I will give my predictions on what will unfold as well as some dates that hopefully line up with what will truly happen. My overarching opinion is that Russia will NOT invade Ukraine. My opinion is Russia is only threatening the World. Putin is not stupid, he is an intelligent man who does not fear the might of the World. He was once criticised for his swift takeover of Crimea, now, World Leaders queue up in Moscow, one by one, waiting to make a deal with him.

Let me take a moment to address the opposite. If Russia does invade Ukraine then my stance is this. Ukraine will not fall alone, it will be the first out of the many countries that border Russia. From the words of Lithuanian Prime Minister, “an attempt to recreate a Soviet Union 2.0”. If Ukraine goes, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Poland, Romania, Georgia. These countries once part of the great communist state now find themselves vulnerable. 

Anyways, that’s my opinion on Ukraine. Hope everyone stays safe under the terror that is Omicron. Thank You for all the support!

Happy Reading!